A Direct Route to Markov Chain Convergence via Asymptotic Equivalence with the Target

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arXiv:2608.03353v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: For a Markov kernel $T$ with an invariant probability measure $\pi$, we give a self-contained proof of the Markov chain convergence theorem via a criterion called asymptotic equivalence with the target. It assumes two parts about the Lebesgue decompositions of $T^n_x$ and $\pi$ for every starting point $x$: 1.) asymptotic absolute continuity: the singular mass $\mathrm{sing}(T^n_x \mid \pi)$ tends to $0$; and, 2.) asymptotic domination of the target: the singular mass $\mathrm{sing}(\pi \mid T^n_x)$ tends to $0$, as $n \to \infty$. Assuming a jointly measurable density for the absolutely continuous part of each iterate $T^n$ w.r.t. $\pi$, this criterion is sufficient and necessary for convergence. A positive minorant density version of it is verified in three cases: i.) $T$ has a positive transition density w.r.t. $\pi$; ii.) $T$ consists of an absolutely continuous part with positive transition density together with an atom at the starting point, which covers the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm; iii.) the transition density is positive only after a finite number of steps that may depend on the starting point $x$. To demonstrate our general criterion, we investigate the Gibbs sampler with random scan and the parallel tempering algorithm. Furthermore, we show that in all mentioned settings Birkhoff's ergodic theorem applies, so as to obtain the strong law of large numbers. Throughout this paper, neither irreducibility, nor aperiodicity, nor recurrence, nor couplings, nor splitting constructions, nor small sets are …

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