A Spatial Persistence Gradient in European Warming Consistent with North Atlantic Cold-Blob Influence

Sicherheitsmeldung mit Schweregrad noch nicht bewertet. Technische Details im Tab „Originaltext“; empfohlene Schritte in der Checkliste.

Originaltext der Quelle (nicht übersetzt) – die deutsche Zusammenfassung findest du im Tab „Kurzfassung".

arXiv:2608.00063v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Europe is warming faster than the global mean, yet the spatial organisation of this acceleration remains incompletely understood. Using ERA5 reanalysis for 1950--2024 across 28 IPCC AR6 European sub-regions, we identify two connected empirical results. First, the DFA1 Hurst exponent of interannual temperature residuals is strongly and negatively associated with the 1996--2024 warming rate ($r=-0.792$, $p=5.1\times10^{-7}$). High-persistence, mainly Atlantic-proximal regions warm more slowly, whereas low-persistence continental regions warm faster. This relationship is robust to five residualisation schemes, three memory estimators, leave-one-region-out analysis, and five null-test families, including spatial block permutation. It also persists across warming windows ($r=-0.550$ for 1981--2024, $-0.792$ for 1996--2024, and $-0.875$ for 2000--2024), but vanishes under DFA2, indicating that the signal lies in low-frequency interannual-to-decadal persistence rather than trend curvature. The pattern is consistent with, but does not prove, North Atlantic cold-blob and thermohaline influence on European land temperatures. Second, under a strict 2006--2024 holdout, contemporaneous Mediterranean SST reduces mean annual temperature RMSE by 43% (from $0.787$ to $0.449,^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$). A causal lag-weight predictor based on prior-year Mediterranean and Atlantic SST also outperforms AR(2) ($0.578$ versus $0.695,^{\circ}\mathrm{C}$) and remains informative after removing NAO, AO, and PNA effects. Similar skill from five-year …

Vollständiger Originalartikel ↗

• Betroffenheit im eigenen Stack prüfen: Versionen/Komponenten abgleichen.
• Originalquelle / Hersteller-Advisory lesen: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00063
• Verfügbaren Patch oder Workaround einspielen und dokumentieren.