Beyond the QBER Threshold: A Temporal QBER Based Machine Learning Framework for Multi Attack Detection in BB84 QKD

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arXiv:2608.04047v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conventional BB84 Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) systems rely on a fixed 11% Quantum Bit Error Rate (QBER) threshold to detect eavesdropping. However, stealthy attacks can remain below this threshold while still compromising channel security. This paper proposes a temporal QBER based machine learning framework for detecting and classifying eavesdropping attacks in BB84 QKD systems. Rather than relying on average session level QBER, the framework extracts 63 physics-informed temporal features capturing burst behavior, temporal instability, basis dependent asymmetry, and QBER loss interactions. Random Forest, XGBoost, and Support Vector Machine with a Radial Basis Function kernel (SVM-RBF) classifiers are evaluated on seven eavesdropping attacks and a normal channel scenario under noisy and lossy conditions. Averaged over ten independent runs, XGBoost achieves the best performance with 88.01% (0.47%) accuracy and a macro F1 score of 0.8803, while SVM-RBF performs comparably, confirming the robustness of the proposed features. Evaluated as a binary attack-versus-normal detector for comparison with conventional monitoring, a fixed 11% QBER threshold achieves only 25.82% accuracy with a False Negative Rate (FNR) of 0.8477, whereas the proposed framework reduces the FNR to 0.0198, substantially improving detection of stealthy attacks that evade threshold-based monitoring. SHapley Additive exPlanations based (SHAP) explainability shows that physics-informed temporal and channel derived features are highly discriminative for …

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