Curriculum-Aware Interpolate-then-Refine: Learned Physiological Time-Series Imputation under Realistic Missingness

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arXiv:2608.21207v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Imputing physiological time series (arterial blood pressure, blood glucose, etc.) is essential for addressing the missingness that pervades clinical data. Yet modern imputation methods perform poorly in this domain: a recent benchmark found that simple linear interpolation outperformed every learned imputer on real-world clinical signals with realistic gaps. We show that this reflects two properties of physiological missingness that generic imputers ignore: gaps may occur when the signal is clinically extreme rather than typical, and gap lengths can easily span orders of magnitude. To this end, we introduce Curriculum-Aware Interpolate-then-Refine (CAIR), a two-stage framework for physiological time-series imputation. Our key motivation is to learn a coarse base curve and then repeatedly correct it toward physiological realism, rather than predict a gap in a single pass. Consequently, CAIR couples a bidirectional-GRU interpolator with a Transformer refiner that corrects its own estimate over three successive passes, trained jointly under a broad, signal-agnostic random-gap curriculum. We evaluate imputers stratified by gap length and missingness mechanism (MCAR, MAR, NMAR) rather than by a single average, and CAIR is the most accurate under every mechanism on continuous glucose monitoring (AI-READI) and arterial pressure in intensive care (MIMIC-III). Its margin over the strongest baseline grows with difficulty, from 9% under MCAR to 19% under value-dependent dropout, where generic learned imputers are weakest. We further …

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