Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation in Microscopic Traffic Simulations Considering Credit Assignment

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arXiv:2511.06229v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper focuses on dynamic origin-destination matrix estimation (DODE), a crucial calibration process necessary for the effective application of microscopic traffic simulations. The fundamental challenge of the DODE problem in microscopic simulations stems from the complex temporal dynamics and inherent uncertainty of individual vehicle dynamics. This makes it highly challenging to precisely determine which vehicle traverses which link at any given moment, resulting in intricate and often ambiguous relationships between origin-destination (OD) matrices and their contributions to resultant link flows. This phenomenon constitutes the credit assignment problem, a central challenge addressed in this study. We formulate the DODE problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and propose a novel framework that applies model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Within our proposed framework, the agent learns an optimal policy to sequentially generate OD matrices, refining its strategy through direct interaction with the simulation environment. This approach was evaluated through a toy experiment on the Nguyen-Dupuis network and a case study utilizing an actual highway subnetwork spanning Santa Clara and San Jose. Experimental results show that the proposed method consistently improves calibration performance relative to the strongest conventional baseline, reducing link-flow MSE by 23.7% in the toy experiment and by 59.2-88.3% in the real-world case study. By reframing DODE as a sequential decision-making problem, our …

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