Distribird: Literature-Informed Prior Distribution Design for Bayesian Model Calibration

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arXiv:2608.11210v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian calibration of process-based models requires a prior distribution for each model parameter. Despite decades of methodological work, researchers almost always fall back on uniform priors. The main reason is that building informative priors from scientific literature is slow and needs both domain and statistical expertise. We present Distribird, an agentic web application that automates this process. Given a parameter name, physical description, and domain context, Distribird deploys a multi-agent pipeline that searches the literature, extracts and weights reported values by domain relevance, and fits a probability distribution via AIC model selection. When no literature is available, the system falls back to sensible uninformative alternatives, and clearly reports both the evidence behind and the confidence level of every prior it produces. It is designed for the problems where the models have physically interpretable parameters, where domain knowledge exists in the published literature. We evaluate the tool on 24~parameters across 10 scientific domains comparing three open-weight models (Qwen3.6 27B, Gemma 4 31B, Mistral Small 4 119B) with a single-prompt LLM baseline. On prior quality the full pipeline matches this baseline. Every prior is traced to the specific papers and values from which it was constructed; a built-in validity layer declines to produce priors for out-of-scope requests, whereas the single-prompt baseline returns confident but unfounded priors for them in 11 of 30~model-parameter cases; and …

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