Does Explanation Correctness Matter? Linking Computational XAI Evaluation to Human Understanding

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arXiv:2603.25251v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Explainable AI (XAI) methods are commonly evaluated using functional correctness metrics, sometimes termed faithfulness or fidelity, which estimate how closely an explanation reflects the model's reasoning. Higher correctness is assumed to produce better human understanding, but this link has not been tested with controlled levels. We conducted a user study (N=200) that manipulated explanation correctness at four levels (100%, 85%, 70%, 55%) in a synthetic time series classification task where participants could not rely on domain knowledge or visual intuition. Correctness was defined against a known ground truth, not estimated from a trained model. Participants predicted a simulated AI's decisions from feature-attribution-style explanations (forward simulation), and we used their forward simulation accuracy as a proxy for understanding. Correctness affected understanding, but not at every level: forward simulation accuracy dropped at 70% and 55% relative to fully correct explanations, with no further reduction below 70% and no conclusive difference between 85% and 100%. Lower correctness reduced how many participants predicted accurately rather than lowering accuracy uniformly, and even fully correct explanations did not guarantee understanding: forward simulation accuracy was bimodal there, with only a subset of participants well above chance. In exploratory analyses, some participants predicted decisions accurately but described the wrong pattern when asked what the AI used, and self-reported ratings correlated …

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