EHR2Path: Comprehensive Pathway-Level Modeling of Longitudinal Patient Trajectories from Multimodal Electronic Health Records

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arXiv:2506.04831v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Forecasting how a patient's condition is likely to evolve, including possible deterioration, recovery, treatment needs, and care transitions, could support more proactive and personalized care, but requires modeling heterogeneous and longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data. Yet, existing approaches typically focus on isolated prediction tasks, narrow feature spaces, or short context windows, limiting their ability to model full patient pathways. To address this gap, we introduce EHR2Path, a multimodal framework for forecasting and simulating full in-hospital patient pathways from routine EHRs. EHR2Path converts diverse clinical inputs into a unified temporal representation, enabling modeling of a substantially broader set of patient information, including radiology reports, physician notes, vital signs, medication and laboratory patterns, and dense bedside charting. To support long clinical histories and broad feature spaces, we introduce a Masked Summarization Bottleneck that compresses long-term history into compact, task-optimized summary tokens while preserving recent context, improving both performance and token efficiency. In retrospective experiments on MIMIC-IV, EHR2Path enables next-step pathway forecasting and iterative simulation of complete in-hospital trajectories, while outperforming strong baselines on directly comparable tasks. These results demonstrate the feasibility of pathway-level modeling from routine EHRs, and indicate potential for supporting anticipatory clinical decision-making. …

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