General Bayesian Policy Learning

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arXiv:2602.23672v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This study proposes a General Bayes framework for policy learning. We consider decision problems in which a decision-maker chooses an action from a given set to maximize expected welfare. Typical examples include treatment choice and portfolio optimization. In such problems, the statistical target is a decision rule, and predicting each potential outcome is not necessarily of primary interest. We formulate this policy-learning problem through loss-based Bayesian updating. Our main technical device is a squared-loss surrogate for welfare maximization. We show that maximizing empirical welfare over a policy class with a quadratic penalty controlled by a tuning parameter $\zeta>0$ is equivalent to minimizing a scaled squared error in the outcome difference. The resulting General Bayes posterior over decision rules admits two equivalent characterizations: a Gaussian pseudo-likelihood representation and a decision-theoretic loss-based characterization. As one implementation, we introduce GBPLNet, a neural network implementation with a tanh-squashed output. Finally, we establish PAC-Bayes-type guarantees for the surrogate risk and the corresponding penalized welfare.

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