Integrating spectral and morphological plant features with decision-tree models for early-season cotton biomass and nitrogen status estimation from multi-year UAV data

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arXiv:2608.07801v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Precision nitrogen (N) management (PNM) for cotton requires in-season monitoring of crop growth parameters and N status indicators to decide fertilizer timing, placement, and application rates for optimal canopy development and yield. This study developed remote sensing and machine learning-based methods to estimate cotton dry biomass weight (DBW), plant N uptake (PNU), plant N concentration (PNC), critical N dilution (Nc), and nitrogen nutrition index (NNI) to support PNM. To achieve this, a three-year field-based N-management study was conducted and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral images were acquired between early vegetative growth and flowering stages, critical for fertilizer applications. Spatiotemporally consistent spectral and morphological plant features, including plant height (PH) and fractional canopy cover (FCC), provided reliable model training inputs. DBW, PNU, and PNC estimates from simple regression using vegetation indices (VIs), multiple linear regression (MLR) combining VIs, PH, and FCC, and decision-tree models, random forest regression (RFR) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB), combining spectral reflectance, PH, and FCC were evaluated using trial-held-out (THO) and leave-one-year-out (LOYO) validation methods. The best validation accuracies were from RFRTHO (R2 = 0.88 and MAPE = 23.14% for DBW; R2 = 0.84 and MAPE = 20.61% for PNU; R2 = 0.85 and MAPE = 7.82% for PNC) and XGBTHO (R2 = 0.87 and MAPE = 21.91% for DBW; R2 = 0.81 and MAPE = 21.40% for PNU; R2 = 0.86 and MAPE = …

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