Learning between the peaks: sharp asymptotics for kernel ridge regression under power-law anisotropy

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arXiv:2608.28564v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study kernel ridge regression under anisotropic Gaussian data, where the input covariance decays as a power law with exponent $\alpha\geq 0$ for polynomial inner-product kernels. We derive asymptotically sharp expressions for the kernel spectrum and the generalization error in the polynomial high-dimensional regime $n=\Theta(d^\kappa)$, revealing how anisotropy reshapes the learning curves. For weak anisotropy ($0 1$), the effective dimension of the problem is constant, and the variance stops depending on sample size altogether, plateauing under ridgeless interpolation or vanishing at an explicit rate under fixed ridge penalty. The bias undergoes a sharp transition governed by the target's decay rate: below a threshold, learning is abrupt rather than gradual; above it, the bias decays as a power law that recovers the classical source and capacity rates. We finally specialize these results to single-index targets, showing how the alignment of the index with the data's principal directions determines the effect of anisotropy on learning. Together, our results clarify how the input geometry shapes the kernel features and fundamentally impacts its generalization properties.

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