Low-Rank Dynamics-Effective Latent Carriers for Counterfactual Rollout in Learned World Models

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arXiv:2608.15156v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We ask whether a small, directly addressable hidden-state intervention can place a learned world model on an intended counterfactual future and then let the model's own dynamics carry that future forward. In a controlled two-object collision environment, we study a 192-dimensional recurrent model trained on factual and locally edited counterfactual trajectories. Candidate carriers are learned from training-only counterfactual-minus-factual hidden differences, and an affine map predicts carrier coordinates from the factual state and requested edit without access to the native counterfactual hidden state at test time. For bounded single-component velocity edits, rank 4 is the smallest tested rank on the preregistered grid that satisfies the development criteria. A one-shot rank-4 patch launches a 12-transition autonomous rollout without future observations, teacher forcing, repeated hidden-state correction, or physical-state clamping. The frozen procedure satisfies the preregistered 2-of-3 fresh-checkpoint replication rule and remains reusable at nearby anchors. The same Single-derived carrier and Single-only affine map also support bounded same-object two-component requests. Across the matched training regimes, broader counterfactual support was associated mainly with better Joint rollout accuracy and more additive Joint hidden responses. Composition-related structure is enriched in the rank-4 subspace but is not confined to it, and local recurrent diagnostics show strong one-step coupling from the carrier to the …

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