Multimodal Large Language Models Predict Urban Safety Perception but Encode Non-Neutral Demographic Priors

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arXiv:2503.00610v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding how people perceive urban environments is essential for inclusive planning, yet conventional surveys are costly and difficult to scale. We investigate whether Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) can assess perceived urban safety from street-view imagery while accounting for the observer-dependent nature of perception. Using Place Pulse 2.0, we evaluate four open and proprietary MLLMs across 56 cities under a Neutral prompt and socio-demographic personas defined by gender, age, and race or ethnicity. We also analyse the keywords generated to justify each classification. All four models display comparable zero-shot capability, with city-macro F1 scores of 65--69%, and preserve meaningful cross-city variation. However, they systematically favour the Safe class, underpredict unsafety, and compress differences between cities. Their explanations converge on a shared visual lexicon: maintenance, greenery, order, and residential character support Safe judgements, whereas deterioration, isolation, poor lighting, and limited pedestrian activity support Unsafe judgements. Persona prompting produces substantial and structured shifts while holding the image fixed. Female personas yield more Unsafe classifications than Male personas across all models; age effects are model-dependent, although Middle-aged personas generally remain closest to Neutral. Black/African American and Native American personas frequently show the largest departures, while the closest race or ethnicity match varies by model. These …

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