NeoTriFuse: Reliability-Aware Multimodal Fusion under Missingness Heterogeneity for Neonatal Mortality Risk Prediction

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arXiv:2608.26436v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Neonatal mortality risk prediction from bedside monitoring data remains challenging due to extreme class imbalance, heterogeneous clinical risk factors, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and substantial missingness. We propose NeoTriFuse, a reliability-aware multimodal fusion framework for missingness-heterogeneous neonatal monitoring data. Unlike conventional multimodal approaches that treat missingness primarily as a preprocessing issue, NeoTriFuse models missingness as an explicit reliability signal that dynamically modulates modality contributions during fusion. The framework integrates static perinatal variables, local-global temporal encoders, and patient-level statistical summaries through reliability-guided gating mechanisms, while jointly optimizing mortality prediction and an auxiliary length-of-stay objective. NeoTriFuse achieves competitive performance, with an F1 score of 0.6736 +/- 0.0216 and an AUROC of 0.9454 +/- 0.0056. Ablation studies indicate that the local-global temporal architecture and patient-level summary branch contribute most substantially to predictive performance, while reliability-aware gating provides additional improvements on threshold-dependent metrics under heterogeneous observation completeness. Sensitivity analyses further suggest stable performance across nearby hyperparameter settings. Overall, the findings support reliability-aware multimodal fusion as a practical approach for neonatal mortality prediction under realistic clinical missingness conditions.

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