No Detectable Change in Side-Level WER from Prompt-Level Context: A Preregistered Ablation on a Production Oral-History Corpus

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arXiv:2608.28875v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Supplying context at inference time to a large multimodal model is an inexpensive lever for adapting speech transcription to a domain, and earlier results on smaller models reported large gains. This work tested that mechanism where it ships, in the prompt-conditioning layer of a production oral-history transcription tool, on a sample from its own production corpus. Full prompt-level context did not detectably change side-level word error rate (WER), and none of the four preregistered hypotheses was supported. The design was a within-item paired ablation, preregistered with the analysis code frozen by hash before the confirmatory batch was scored; two disclosed gpt-4o pilot sides had been scored earlier, during scorer development. Nineteen cassette sides, about 10.6 hours of degraded 1970s-80s interview audio, were reprocessed through the production code path under three prompt arms, crossed with two deployed commercial configurations, gpt-4o-transcribe and gemini-2.5-flash, and scored against operator-corrected verbatim references. For gpt-4o-transcribe the median paired difference between the full-context and no-context arms was +0.6 WER points, with a side-resampled interval of [-1.1, +1.0]; the Gemini estimates were too unstable to support a comparable negative inference. A post-hoc rerun found run-to-run pipeline variability larger than the confirmatory differences, so effects of that size cannot be resolved from one transcription per cell. An implementation audit verified the manipulation was live, and …

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