PAC-Bayes Beyond Parameter Space: Behavioral Equivalence, Z-Information, and Exact Complexity Decomposition

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arXiv:2608.11465v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: PAC-Bayes theory provides generalization guarantees by controlling the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence between posterior and prior distributions over a chosen hypothesis representation. However, predictive risk depends only on the predictive behavior induced by a hypothesis, not on the particular internal realization that implements that behavior. In over-parameterized systems, many distinct configurations induce identical predictive behavior, yet the classical PAC-Bayes KL divergence does not distinguish uncertainty over predictive behavior from variation among behaviorally equivalent realizations. We show that this distinction induces an exact structural decomposition of classical PAC-Bayes complexity. We formalize behavioral equivalence through a measurable behavior map and use measure disintegration to decompose probability measures on the configuration space into a distribution over predictive behaviors and conditional distributions over behavioral fibers. This yields an exact decomposition of the classical PAC-Bayes KL divergence into a behavior-selection term and a realization-level term given by an expected conditional KL within fibers. We define Z-information as the negative of this realization-level contribution: the exact gap between the KL divergence and the complexity of uncertainty over predictive behavior alone. We further show that the behavior-selection term admits an exact variational characterization: it is the minimum KL divergence among all posteriors inducing the same distribution over predictive …

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