Reference-Grafting Matches Fine-Tuning at Eliciting Sandbagged Capabilities

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arXiv:2608.29458v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sandbagging, in which a model deliberately underperforms on an evaluation despite retaining the underlying capability, threatens the safety evaluations that frontier-model governance depends on. The Elicitation Game found that fine-tuning elicits hidden capability from sandbagging model organisms whereas additive activation steering fails. We revisit that verdict with reference-grafting, which sets an activation's coordinate along a contrast direction to the value it takes in an honest reference, at a small set of circuits chosen by active learning. Across eleven fine-tuned password-locked models (1.5-32B, three architecture lineages), it recovers +94 to +101% of the honest-sandbagging gap, matching fine-tuning elicitation without weight updates or training labels; two to five paired examples suffice to fit the direction. Similar recovery holds for reinforcement-learning-induced sandbagging and for password-locked code generation. Grafting works because the fine-tuned lock is a thresholded gate: held-out accuracy stays at the sandbagged level until the grafted coordinate crosses a threshold near the honest reference, which is why additive steering and zeroing the coordinate often fail. The direction tracks how the sandbagging was induced rather than what is withheld -- fit on grade-school science (ARC) it elicits withheld hazardous knowledge (WMDP), yet prompting, fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning each carry a different direction. Circuit-breaking marks the boundary: it reroutes activations on every forward pass, so …

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