RSTGCN: Railway-centric Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network for Train Delay Prediction

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arXiv:2510.01262v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate prediction of train delays is critical for efficient railway operations. While earlier approaches have largely focused on forecasting the exact delays of individual trains, studies on station-level delay prediction are somewhat sparse. To address this gap, we propose the Railway-centric Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Network (RSTGCN), designed to forecast average arrival delays of all the incoming trains at a particular station for a particular time period. Our approach incorporates several architectural innovations and novel feature integrations, including train frequency-aware spatial attention, which significantly enhance predictive performance. To support this effort, we curate and release a comprehensive dataset for the entire Indian Railway Network (IRN), spanning 4,735 stations across 17 zones - the largest and most diverse railway network studied to date. We conduct extensive experiments using multiple state-of-the-art baselines, demonstrating consistent improvements across standard metrics. Specifically, RSTGCN outperforms the best baseline by 18% in MAE, 14% in MAPE, and 1-8% in RMSE on the IRN.

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