Spatiotemporal Proximal Causal Inference under Hidden Confounding and Interference

Sicherheitsmeldung mit Schweregrad noch nicht bewertet. Technische Details im Tab „Originaltext“; empfohlene Schritte in der Checkliste.

Originaltext der Quelle (nicht übersetzt) – die deutsche Zusammenfassung findest du im Tab „Kurzfassung".

arXiv:2608.01352v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating causal effects from real-world spatiotemporal data is challenging due to hidden confounders and interference. Standard causal identification methods assume conditional exchangeability given observed covariates, which fails whenever hidden confounders affect both treatment and outcomes - a common setting in domains such as climate, environmental policy, epidemiology, and regional economics. In this paper, we propose a novel spatiotemporal proximal causal inference framework that extends proximal identification theory to spatiotemporal settings. The proposed method jointly captures local and neighborhood-level confounding information by introducing treatment- and outcome-inducing proxies, and we derive a spatiotemporal outcome confounding bridge function that identifies the potential outcome without requiring direct recovery of the hidden confounder. We establish the identifiability of this bridge function under proxy exclusion restrictions and a spatiotemporal completeness condition, and show that the resulting estimator recovers the outcome through a proximal generalization of the g-computation formula. To operationalize this identification result, we propose a neural architecture that learns proxies via transformer-based spatiotemporal encoders - coupled with a conditional mutual information critic to enforce exclusion restrictions and a moment-matching network to guarantee that the learned bridge function satisfies the underlying identifying equation. We further introduce a stabilized weighting scheme to address …

Vollständiger Originalartikel ↗

• Betroffenheit im eigenen Stack prüfen: Versionen/Komponenten abgleichen.
• Originalquelle / Hersteller-Advisory lesen: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.01352
• Verfügbaren Patch oder Workaround einspielen und dokumentieren.