Weighted Bayesian Conformal Prediction

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arXiv:2604.06464v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning predictors are rarely deployed on data that match the data they were calibrated on. Conformal prediction and its risk-control generalization promise distribution-free guarantees at deployment, but only under exchangeability or a covariate shift whose likelihood ratio is known exactly -- and the estimated-ratio case, the one that occurs in practice, is explicitly open, out of reach of the Bayesian construction available under exchangeability. We reach it from a different starting point: pushing a Dirichlet process prior on the calibration distribution through the likelihood ratio yields the exact Bayesian posterior over the deployed risk. That posterior is exact given the weight function, which at deployment is itself estimated, so we further prove finite-sample upper and lower bounds on the risk the selected threshold actually incurs, in terms of the weight-estimation error and the conditional shift. On synthetic and real covariate shifts, in regression and classification, the realized failure rate then stays close to target where shift-blind selection fails, and what deployment receives is a posterior over the risk of every threshold rather than a single number.

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