When AI Writes, Who Gets Cited? Evidence of Citation Monoculture Across Language Models

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arXiv:2608.19230v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: As language models move from drafting prose to running literature-search agents with tool calls, fabricated references are becoming easier to catch and constrain. The harder failure begins after every candidate is real: different models may still select the same narrow subset, producing citation monoculture without any single citation being wrong. We isolate this effect on 120 real papers. Eleven models from three vendors choose at most ten papers from uniformly random panels of thirty, with real titles and abstracts but fabricated authors, reassigned years, and hidden venues and citation counts. Each run is compared with indifferent selection on the same panel and realized budget. All eleven models concentrate sharply: the top decile receives 23.3-30.2% of citations against 15.6% under the null, one component explains 68-73% of variation across their preference maps, and cross-vendor agreement nearly matches within-vendor agreement. Formalizing the task as fixed-budget subset selection, we turn these patterns into identifiable mechanisms: an exchangeability bound rejects a mapless selector for every model, a spectral decomposition explains why the best cross-fitted mixture still retains 55% of the excess, and a rarity theorem predicts the recursive competition effect we verify within panels. Controlled paraphrase, content-slot crossover, and design resampling attribute about 90% of GPT-5 mini's map variance to paper content. Eight domain experts selecting from the same blinded panels under the same cap show no comparable …

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