When Does the Best Sampling Temperature Rise with the Budget? Sufficient Conditions for Pass@k

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arXiv:2608.14665v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The temperature that maximizes pass@$k$ is often low for a small sampling budget and higher for a large budget. This pattern has been reported from Codex through recent multi-sample inference studies. It is not an algebraic property of pass@$k$: as Slocum et al. (ICLR 2025) observe, for one fixed task the maximizing temperature is independent of $k$. Building on that fixed-task observation and the hard/easy-task explanation, we give a formal population-level sufficient condition for the aggregate pattern. For task $X$, let $p_t(X)$ be one-sample success probability at temperature $t$, and define the conditional log-success response $m_t(u)=\mathbb{E}[\dot p_t(X)\mid p_t(X)=u]/u$. If $m_t(u)$ is nonincreasing in current success probability, then the normalized temperature derivative of aggregate pass@$k$ is nondecreasing in $k$. Consequently, derivative signs are nested across budgets; if each temperature-performance curve is strictly single-peaked, its unique maximizer is nondecreasing in $k$. The proof identifies the mechanism as a monotone-likelihood-ratio power tilt toward lower-success tasks. We derive a closed-form two-stratum phase diagram, including upward and downward regimes, and show that the marginal temperature derivative admits an exact $\mathrm{Beta}(2,k)$ kernel representation whose kernel concentrates at one-sample success of order $1/k$. Interpreting that scale as task-level localization additionally requires a regular, nonvanishing density-response factor near zero. A signed-moment representation yields …

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