Evidence-State Reliability Under Controlled Degradation: Parser-Validity Divergence in a Multi-Stage LLM Pipeline

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arXiv:2608.21559v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multi-stage LLM pipelines can remain structurally valid even when evidence available to downstream stages becomes incomplete, compressed, or conflicting. This paper introduces and operationalizes Evidence-State Reliability (ESR), an evaluation layer concerned with whether intermediate evidence remains sufficiently complete, grounded, internally consistent, and usable for a stage's assigned function. ESR is evaluated separately from parser validity, which measures structural conformance. We evaluate the framework using GLM-5.2 on 60 sanitized base cases under four evidence conditions: clean, compressed-lossy, partial-dropout, and noisy-conflicting. Each condition was processed through decision, audit, and escalation stages. The design comprised 720 planned and ledgered calls, with 713 retained, sanitized execution rows. Across nine matched degraded-minus-clean condition-stage comparisons, all operational stage-success estimates were negative, and all 95% bootstrap intervals remained below zero. All nine parser-validity point estimates were positive, although the three partial-dropout intervals included zero. Among parser-valid degraded audit outputs, degradation detection was 1.0 in each degraded condition, while false-assurance rates remained non-zero; among parser-valid degraded escalation outputs, recovery was 0.0 in every degraded condition. The results show a bounded reliability-layer divergence in the evaluated pipeline: structural conformance can improve directionally while evidence-sensitive stage success …

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